African Swine Fever Hits Hard in China

China’s Agriculture Ministry says more than 80 percent of hog farms in China have decided not to replenish herds lost to African Swine Fever, leaving a gap in production.

Reports say China’s hog production has dropped 21 percent since the first ASF outbreak. American Farm Bureau economist Michael Nepveux cites a private estimate that ASF will take 30 percent of China’s hog herd.

“We’re getting quite a few reports from private companies operating in the areas as well as general news and social media reports that the actual problem is much worse than what China is officially reporting,” Nepveux said.

To provide perspective, “15 to 20 percent of China’s would be the entirety of the U.S. herd,” he said.

The decline will lead to lower demand for soybean and feed products but will increase demand for pork products, since pork accounts for more than 60 percent of the country’s meat consumption. 

 Sources: Brownfield Ag News, Farm Bureau