USDA Releases World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates

The USDA in May released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. This report presents an initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2014/15.

The report predicts the following:

Wheat: U.S. wheat supplies are projected down 10% from 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expected lower. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8% from last year. Global wheat supplies are projected down less than 1% from 2013/14, and world wheat production is projected at 697.0 million tons, down 2% percent from the 2013/14 record.

Corn: Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, and corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013/14 record. The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013/14. Global corn trade for 2014/15 is projected lower with imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico and exports projected lower for Ukraine and the U.S.

Rice: U.S. all rice supplies are forecast up 6% from 2013/14, and total use is up 5%. U.S. all rice total use is projected at 230.0 million cwt, with domestic and residual use at 128.0 million, and exports at 102.0 million. Global total rice supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 592.0 and 482.2 million tons, respectively. Global 2014/15 rice production is projected at a record 480.7 million tons, up 4.6 million from 2013/14.

Soybeans: The U.S. soybean crush is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013/14, mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013/14 on record supplies and competitive prices. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013/14.

Livestock, poultry and dairy: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2015 is projected to rise above 2014. Pork production is expected to increase. Broiler and turkey production are forecast higher as lower forecast feed prices and record 2014 wholesale broiler and turkey prices encourage expansion. However, beef production is forecast lower, as a declining beef cattle inventory and potential heifer retention is expected to limit cattle placements in late 2014 and into 2015. Turkey production is increased slightly based on the current pace of slaughter.

Egg production for 2014 is raised as higher table egg production more than offsets reduced hatching egg production, and egg production for 2015 also is forecast to expand.

Milk production for 2015 is forecast higher as lower feed costs and strong milk prices are expected to support both herd expansion and gains in milk per cow. The all milk price is forecast at $19.70 to $20.70 per cwt for 2015.

Cotton: U.S. production is forecast at 14.5 million bales. Exports are projected at 9.7 million bales, down 7%, due to lower anticipated world import demand. World production is projected 1.4% lower than 2013/14 at 115.5 million bales, and world consumption is expected to rise more than 2%. The full USDA report is available at bit.ly/agsupplydemand.