Cotton Panel Predicts $17.68 Billion Crop

U.S. cotton farmers are on pace to produce a 17.68 million bale crop this season, estimated a panel of analysts speaking at the Ag Market Network’s annual Cotton Roundtable in New York City.

Southwest: Texas crop condition is much better than a year ago. “Following three years of drought, timely rains from late May up to mid-July have saved the west Texas 3.5-million-acre dryland crop from another major disaster. The roughly 2 million acres of irrigated cotton is doing exceptionally well.” About 20% of the projected 6.45 million acres planted in Texas in 2014-15 will be abandoned. Production estimate for Texas is around 7.6 million bales, compared to 4.2 million last year.  Oklahoma growers planted 240,000 acres of cotton and expect to produce about 300,000 bales. In Kansas, growers planted 43,000 acres that are in good condition and may produce some 60,000 bales.

Far West: Total of upland and Pima acres planted in California and Arizona, estimated at 365,000 acres, “is the smallest number of acres across these two states since the 1930s.” The single biggest factor is the decline in water availability. California is in its third consecutive year of well-below average winter snowfall, which has led to a severe decline in reservoir levels. Production estimates for California, Arizona and New Mexico are at roughly 740,000 bales and Pima, at about 545,000 bales. That would bring total cotton production in the area to 1.3 million bales, versus 1.5 million bales a year ago.

Mid-South and Southeast: Cotton crops caught up from a late start, and boll set-in has been exceptional. Estimates are for 5.2 million bales of production in the Southeast.

Certified FiberMax, Cotton Incorporated, Ag Market Network, Intercontinental Exchange and Farm Press Publications sponsored The Cotton Roundtable. S