Bankers Expect Net Farm income for Grain Farmers Up 12.6%

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index reports on average in June, bank CEOs expect 2022 net farm income for grain farmers to be 12.6% above 2021 levels.

Farm equipment sales: The June farm equipment-sales index climbed to 71.4 from May’s healthy 66.9. This was the 19th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral. Readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since the beginning of the survey in 2006.

Farming and Ranching:  The region’s farmland price index for June advanced to 76.8 from May’s 72.0, marking the 21st straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral. Over the past several months, the Creighton survey has registered the most consistent and strongest growth in farmland prices since the survey was launched in 2006.

Confidence: Surging energy prices and rocketing agriculture input prices constrained the business confidence index to 33.9, its lowest level since May 2020. This marks the lowest back-to-back readings since the beginning of the pandemic in April and May 2020.

This month, bankers were asked their U.S. recession expectations for the next 12 months. Approximately 92.9% rate the likelihood of a U.S. recession above 50%. Only 7.1% rated a recession probability below 50%.

“Much like the nation, the growth in the Rural Mainstreet economy is slowing. Supply chain disruptions from transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages continue to constrain growth. Farmers and bankers are bracing for escalating interest rates — both long-term and short-term,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business