U.S. Ag Exports to Decline From Record Levels

USDA announced it expects agricultural exports to decline modestly in 2015 and ag imports to continue record growth. Exports will decline about 5% this year from the record $152.5 billion in 2014, while imports rise from $110 billion in 2014 to a record $119 billion in 2015, the agency forecasts.

Lower commodity prices and trade restrictions with Russia are key reasons cited for slowed export growth. Both volume and price will decline for grain, while oilseed exports will be moderated by declining prices and increasing volume. Cotton export volume will be stable, but with falling prices. Losses are projected for livestock, poultry, pork and dairy exports, but beef exports will increase. Horticultural product exports, including fresh and processed fruits, vegetables and tree nuts, are projected to break records, according to USDA.

As consumer spending recovers in the U.S., consumption away from home will drive the expansion of horticultural product imports.

Foreign economy projections are mixed. While China continues to grow faster than other major markets, it no longer sees double-digit growth. Japan, long a strong market for U.S. agricultural commodities, has again slipped into recession. European economies are mixed. And, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened somewhat, it remains relatively weak enough to keep U.S. export markets in positive territory.