USDA 2022-23 Production Forecast

In the USDA’s first detailed forecast of the 2022-23 corn and soybean crops, the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) pegged corn production at 14.46 billion bushels (bb) and the soybean crop at 4.64 bb with both projections falling in line with the pre-report average estimates.

The outlook for 2022-23 wheat production was pegged at 1.729 bb, up 83 million bushels (mb) from last year, with higher projected yields offsetting a slight decrease in harvested area. Globally, production is forecast at 774.8 million metric tons (mmt), 4.5 mmt lower than last year, based on reduced production in Ukraine, Australia and Morocco.

Taking a look at Ukraine estimates for 2022-23, USDA pegs corn production at 19.5 mmt, less than half of Ukraine’s corn production from 2021-22 crop. Corn exports are projected at 9 mmt for 2022-23 in Ukraine, down from 23 mmt for the old crop. For wheat, Ukraine’s production was projected at 21.5 mmt for 2022-23, down from 53.51 mmt for the old wheat crop. Ukraine’s wheat exports for the new crop are pegged at 10 mmt, nearly one-third of the 29.11 mmt projected for the 2021-22 crop.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, new U.S. ending stock estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans, but bullish for wheat.   Source: USDA