Farmer Sentiment Improves in October
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 3 points to 126, with the Index of Current Conditions jumping 16 points. Expectations for farm financial performance improved, and the Farm Capital Investment Index posted its strongest reading in nearly a year.
This month’s survey included questions about farm resilience or the ability to withstand market shocks. Approximately 62% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the following statement: “We have a strong balance sheet.” In January of this year, 76% of respondents indicated that they have a strong balance sheet. In a related question, 60% of respondents this month either agreed or strongly agreed that their farm had a solid working capital position.
A question that was used to measure sentiment regarding the long-run policy environment asked respondents whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” The share of respondents who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction averaged more than 60% from July 2025 to June 2026 but fell below 50% in both the September and October AEB surveys.
Summary
Farmer sentiment rose from 123 to 126 in October, driven by a 16-point increase in the Index of Current Conditions and improved views of financial prospects and the investment environment. However, the Index of Future Expectations declined by 2 points, and the share of producers reporting strong balance sheets fell from 76% in January to approximately 62% in October, highlighting ongoing financial pressures.
Concerns about long-term policy also tempered optimism, with only 35% of respondents believing increased U.S. tariffs would strengthen the agricultural economy over time. Fewer than half felt the country was headed in the right direction. Despite declines in farmland value expectations indices, producers remained optimistic about farmland values over the next five years.
Read the full report here.