Rural Mainstreet Index Shows Continued Strength in Spite of Trade Concerns

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index slipped in April but remained above growth neutral for a third straight month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas.

This is the first time since the middle of 2015 that the survey has recorded three straight months of overall indices above growth neutral.    

The overall index dipped slightly to 53.5 from 54.7 in March. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral. The April farm equipment-sales index climbed to 37.8 from March’s 37.2.

“Surveys over the past several months indicate that the Rural Mainstreet economy is trending upward with improving, and positive economic growth. However, weak farm income continues to weigh on the rural economy,” said economist Ernie Goss from Creighton.  

Recent trade tariffs, both implemented and proposed, have reverberated throughout the agriculture and supporting industries. The confidence index, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, sank to 50 from March’s 58, indicating waning economic optimism among bankers.

“An unresolved North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and rising trade tensions with China are significant concerns,” said Goss.  

When asked in April how important export markets are to their local economy, more than three out of four bank CEOs characterized them as “very important.”