Ratification of USMCA Uncertain

A forthcoming government analysis on the new North American trade pact’s potential economic impact is expected to be influential in shaping how some lawmakers view the deal—and, potentially, how they vote on ratification.

The U.S. International Trade Commission is expected to release an economic impact report around April 19, and it is likely to show only a slight boost to economic growth—or maybe even a negative effect—from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

All three North American nations are reportedly aiming to ratify the three-way deal by this summer, but there are mixed messages.

“We’ve entered a very different sense of urgency,” Jesús Seade, Mexican undersecretary for North America, recently told Mexican business leaders. “Right now, talk is for May or June.”

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow, however, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that he was reluctant to predict whether Congress would vote on USMCA before 2020, noting that the decision is up to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

But “we believe we'll get a vote,” he said. “And if we get a vote, we’ll win. I don't want to put timing on it. It’s completely up to her, but she’s been quite cooperative so far.”

Vice President Mike Pence’s swing-states campaign to promote this successor agreement to NAFTA kicked off last week as President Trump said border security was more important than the USMCA deal. Pence’s weeks-long tour includes stops in farm towns and agricultural regions across Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and other 2020 battlegrounds.

The Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association is part of the USMCA Coalition, which is a group of almost 400 companies and associations working to secure congressional approval of the agreement.

If you’d like to learn more about the coalition or tap into resources related to the agreement, go to usmcacoalition.org.

Source: Politico