Farmer Sentiment Reaches Four-Year High in May
Farmer sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in May, reaching its highest level since May 2021. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 10 points to a reading of 158, up from 148 in April. Both the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations contributed to the increase, with the current conditions index up 5 points to 146 and the future expectations index jumping 12 points to 164.
The sentiment boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.
A key factor contributing to this month’s climb in farmer sentiment could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.’s long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.
To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” On average, 49% of respondents “strongly agreed” with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.
In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose “strongly agreed” in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms’ income.
While the uptick in sentiment is certainly notable, it’s important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers’ expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.
Source: Ag.Purdue.edu