Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls to Early Pandemic Low
September 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:
- The Rural Mainstreet Index plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and fell below growth neutral for the 13th straight month.
- For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank.
- On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to fall by 5.2% in the next year with almost one-fourth anticipating price declines between 10% and 20%.
- Farm equipment sales sank for the 14th straight month.
- On average, bankers expect almost 40% of farmers in the region to experience negative 2024 farm income.
- According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $57.0 million (0.8%) from the same period in 2023.
For a 13th straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the September survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for September sank to 37.5 from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7. “This is the 14th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.
Farming and ranching land prices: For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. The region’s farmland index fell to 43.8 from August’s 45.5. “Only 4.2% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from August levels,” said Goss.
Source: Creighton.edu