NAM: U.S. Still Top Manufacturer

Research firm Global Insight recently predicted that in 2009 the U.S. would lose its position as the world’s top manufacturer for the first time in more than 100 years, Supply Chain Digest reports.  Now in response, John Engler of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) says those numbers were all wrong.

Engler now says the numbers used in the report were inconsistent with data from the World Bank.  Based on that data, Engler says, “The U.S. remains by far the world’s largest manufacturer, producing nearly one-fourth of the world’s industrial output.  Based on the highly respected World Bank database, our analysis also shows that we will produce twice as much this year as the fourth placed economy, China.” 

Even in current measures of manufacturing denominated in dollars, inflating China’s position because of the rising yuan, Engler said the data shows that China will produce only about 60% as much as the U.S. in 2008.  Engler further said that even if China continues its rapid economic growth of about 10% per year, it will take until 2020 at the earliest for China to catch the U.S.

The only possible way for China to catch the U.S. in 2009, Engler said, would be a huge economic collapse in the U.S., well beyond anything like the current slowdown.

“Not only is the U.S. the world’s largest manufacturer, but U.S. manufacturing output in 2007 set an all-time record,” Engler said.  “While there are more than three million fewer manufacturing jobs than in 2000, our productivity has grown so rapidly that today 75 workers produce what it took 100 workers to produce then.”

Global Insight had not yet commented on the rebuttal from NAM on its data.