Recession Is Over, But Don’t Expect A Quick Recovery

A survey released by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said some 80% of top economists believe that the recession is over. But most don’t expect meaningful improvements in jobs, credit or housing for months to come. NABE asked 43 top economists if they thought the U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst downturn in decades. Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they’re uncertain.

Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September. And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.

Unemployment, which was at a 26-year high of 9.8% in September, is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it’s only expected to fall back down to 9.5%. About 54% of those surveyed don’t expect the economy to regain the jobs it lost during the recession until 2012, while another 38% expect that to take even longer. Just three of the economists thought that the NABE spoke to expect these jobs to come back in 2010 or 2011.