First Trust Advisors suggests keeping an eye on the relative value of the U.S. dollar. After appreciating 15.49% from 3/26/18 (Trump administration launched trade tariff program on 3/8/18) through 3/20/20, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 12.53% from 3/20/20 through 12/31/20, according to Bloomberg.
It stood at a reading of 89.94 on 12/31/20, just below its 20-year average reading of 89.99.
Citigroup estimates that the dollar could decline by as much as 20% in 2021, providing the vaccines get distributed, according to Bloomberg. The last time the U.S. Dollar Index was below a reading of 75 was in October 2011.