Rural Mainstreet Index Records Highest Reading Since July 2023

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral 50.0 for January, according to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for January climbed to 52.0, its highest reading since July 2023, and up from December’s 50.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“More than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost four in 10 bankers, or 38.4%, support pulling back on tariffs.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%. Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 18.8, but was up from December’s even weaker 15.0. “This is the 29th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the impending $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above growth neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold for January with an index of 46.0, which was down from 52.5.  

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 44.0, its highest reading since February 2023, and up from 40.9 in December. “Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.

Source: Creighton.edu